Forecasting the Dollar’s Trajectory: Exploring the Implications of Milei’s Dollarization

Javier Milei, a libertarian economist and politician, is the frontrunner in the 2023 Argentine presidential election. One of Milei’s key campaign promises is to dollarize the Argentine economy.

Dollarization is the process of replacing a country’s national currency with the US dollar. Argentina has a long history of currency instability, and many Argentines believe that dollarization would help to stabilize the economy and reduce inflation.

However, there are also some risks associated with dollarization. One concern is that dollarization could make Argentina more vulnerable to economic shocks in the United States. Another concern is that dollarization could make it more difficult for Argentine businesses to compete in the global economy.

What price would the dollar reach with Milei’s dollarization?

It is difficult to say for sure what price the dollar would reach with Milei’s dollarization. However, there are a few factors that could influence the exchange rate.

One factor is the current state of the Argentine economy. The Argentine peso is currently trading at around 280 pesos to the dollar. If the peso is weak and inflation is high, then the dollar is likely to be more expensive after dollarization.

Another factor is the state of the global economy. If the global economy is strong and the US dollar is rising, then the dollar is likely to be more expensive after dollarization.

Finally, the government’s economic policies will also play a role in determining the exchange rate. If the government implements sound economic policies, then the peso is likely to strengthen and the dollar is likely to become less expensive.

Some economists believe that the dollar could reach 100 pesos or more after dollarization. This is based on the fact that the Argentine peso has lost a significant amount of value in recent years. Additionally, Argentina has a high level of inflation, which could further weaken the peso.

Other economists believe that the dollar is unlikely to reach 100 pesos after dollarization. They argue that the Argentine government will implement policies to stabilize the economy and to prevent the peso from weakening too much.

Ultimately, the price of the dollar after dollarization will depend on a number of factors, including the state of the Argentine economy, the state of the global economy, and the government’s economic policies.

What are the implications of dollarization for Argentines?

Dollarization would have a number of implications for Argentines.

One implication is that Argentines would be able to use US dollars in everyday transactions. This would make it easier for Argentines to travel and to do business internationally.

Another implication is that Argentines would be able to save their money in US dollars. This would help to protect their savings from inflation and from the risk of currency devaluation.

However, dollarization would also have some negative implications for Argentines. One implication is that imported goods would become more expensive. This is because the prices of imported goods are determined in US dollars.

Another implication is that Argentine businesses would have a more difficult time competing in the global economy. This is because Argentine businesses would have to pay their workers and suppliers in US dollars.

Conclusion

Milei’s proposal to dollarize the Argentine economy is controversial. There are both potential benefits and risks associated with dollarization. It is important to carefully consider all of the implications before making a decision about whether or not to support dollarization.

Additional thoughts:

It is important to note that dollarization is not a silver bullet. It is not a guarantee that it will solve all of Argentina’s economic problems. Dollarization is just one tool that can be used to stabilize the economy and to reduce inflation.

It is also important to note that dollarization is a complex process. It is important to carefully plan and implement dollarization in order to minimize the risks.

Finally, it is important to note that dollarization is not a permanent solution. If the Argentine government does not implement sound economic policies, then the peso could weaken again and the dollar could become more expensive.